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VICR

Vicor Corporation Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (37)
217.63
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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195.1%
183.0%
β–Ό
204.8%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

πŸ”΄ Avoid
37.8 /100
πŸ—οΈ Structural 19.8 /40
Quality Score: 39.4 Γ— 0.4
M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

G-FOUNDER Governance: G-FOUNDER

Founder-led with high ownership

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

S-P-BOTTLENECK Stack: S-P-BOTTLENECK

PCIe, CXL, Liquid Cooling plumbing

W-IP Moat: W-IP

Patent monopoly or trade secrets

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

RISK-1 EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst estimates project a sharp reversal in earnings momentum, with EPS growth swinging from +195.1% in the current quarter to -43.8% in the subsequent quarter, suggesting structural volatility or a pull-forward of demand.

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

RISK-3 Sequential Revenue Contraction

The -2.9% QoQ revenue decline indicates that despite the 11.5% YoY growth, the company is facing immediate term-over-term headwinds in its core segments.

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

CAT-1 Fiscal Year Recovery

Analysts project a significant EPS rebound of +62.0% for the next fiscal year (FY+1), which could trigger a re-rating if the current quarterly deceleration proves temporary.

RISK-2 Aggressive Insider Liquidation

Insiders have sold 957,052 net shares totaling over $166 million in the last 6 months, signaling a bearish internal sentiment that conflicts with the $208.75 analyst price target.

⚑ Tactical 0.0 /30
S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM Critical Mineral Supply Chain Risk

As an S-P-BOTTLENECK hardware manufacturer, Vicor is exposed to MR-MULTIPOLAR risks regarding undiversified supply chains for materials critical to high-density power modules.

Overview

Vicor Corporation specializes in high-performance modular power components and systems for data center, industrial, and automotive markets. The company develops proprietary power conversion architectures designed to optimize efficiency and density in demanding AI and high-performance computing environments.

Market Cap 8.42B
P/E (TTM) β€”
Rev Growth 0.1%
Gross Margin β€”
CEO: Dr. Patrizio Vinciarelli Ph.D.
Sector: Technology β€’ Electronic Components

Investment Thesis

🎯 Projected +62.0% EPS growth for the following fiscal year driven by the ramp of next-generation high-density AI power modules.

While Vicor occupies a critical bottleneck in AI power delivery, the company is entering a phase of extreme earnings volatility and internal skepticism. Although annual revenue grew 11.5% YoY, the momentum has decelerated as evidenced by a 2.9% sequential revenue contraction. The immediate outlook is clouded by a projected EPS growth reversal from +195.1% in the current quarter to -43.8% in the next, a trend that appears to be validated by insiders who have liquidated over $166 million in equity over the last six months. Investors must weigh the current 26.3% FCF margin against these structural headwinds and the risks associated with an undiversified critical mineral supply chain.

Bear 180.00
β–Ό
Bull 230.00

πŸ•΅οΈ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-04-10 Sell 878.1K
2026-04-10 Sell 1.9M
2026-04-10 Sell 1.9M
2026-04-10 Sell 42K
2026-04-02 Sell 74.7K

πŸ”­ Quarterly Summary

Vicor reported a revenue growth of 11.5% YoY, though performance showed signs of near-term friction with a sequential revenue decline of 2.9%. The company maintains a strong financial profile with a gross margin of 55.4% and a robust TTM FCF margin of 26.3%. Despite the annual growth, the sequential softening suggests a potential bottleneck or transition phase in product cycles, specifically within its AI-B (AI-Beneficiary) positioning.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates