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SOUN

SoundHound AI, Inc. Y

M1: Compounder Avoid (18)
8.10
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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41.7%
20.8%
β–Ό
62.5%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

πŸ”΄ Avoid
18.4 /100
πŸ—οΈ Structural 8.4 /40
Quality Score: 21.0 Γ— 0.4
M1 Methodology: M1

High retention, Rule of 40+

H-DILUTION Serial Diluter

Shares outstanding increased by 7.4% YoY.

W-SWITCH High Switching Costs

Mission-critical integration creates high barriers to exit.

S-D3 Stack: S-D3

B2B apps, outcome-based pricing

G-FOUNDER Governance: G-FOUNDER

Founder-led with high ownership

🌊 Thematic 0.0 /30
Low Conviction (0.0 pts)
RISK-4 AI Disruption Vulnerability

As an AI-C provider, SoundHound faces existential risk from LLM providers (OpenAI, Google) integrating native voice capabilities. If SoundHound's model is perceived as a 'middleman' for voice interface, it may succumb to the -21% return trend seen in reskilling/middleman AI categories.

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

RISK-1 Smart Money Divergence

A sharp conflict exists between analyst sentiment (+127.5% upside) and insider behavior (net selling of 830,614 shares). This $8.6M insider exit suggests management skepticism regarding the sustainability of current valuation levels.

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-3 Structural Cash Burn

With an FCF margin of -61.0%, the company remains heavily reliant on external financing. Failure to narrow this gap while EPS growth decelerates could lead to dilutive capital raises.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

CAT-1 Earnings Beat Momentum

The company has a track record of 3 beats in the last 4 quarters. A significant beat on the next earnings call could trigger a short squeeze or validation of the $14.62 analyst target.

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

RISK-2 EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst estimates project EPS growth slowing from +41.7% to +33.3% in the upcoming quarter. This deceleration flags potential cooling in the rapid adoption cycle or increased competitive pricing pressure in the voice AI space.

AI-C AI: AI-C

SaaS/OpEx dependent, pricing power

⚑ Tactical 10.0 /30
βœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-ACCELERATING Growth Acceleration Rev +2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is accelerating.

Overview

SoundHound AI is a provider of independent voice artificial intelligence solutions that enable businesses to integrate conversational interfaces into hardware and software. The company specializes in speech-to-meaning and deep meaning understanding technologies, primarily serving the automotive, restaurant, and smart device sectors.

Market Cap 2.74B
P/E (TTM) β€”
Rev Growth 0.6%
Gross Margin β€”
CEO: Dr. Keyvan Mohajer
Sector: Technology β€’ Software - Application

Investment Thesis

🎯 Sustained earnings outperformance evidenced by three beats in the last four quarters triggering a valuation rerating.

Although SoundHound AI has demonstrated significant top-line expansion, the sustainability of its business model is challenged by a severe free cash flow deficit of -61.0% and aggressive insider liquidation. While revenue grew 59.4% YoY, the company operates in the high-risk AI-C category, where it faces direct competition from foundational model providers who are increasingly commoditizing voice interfaces. The disconnect between the optimistic analyst price target upside of +127.5% and the $8.6M in recent insider sales suggests that management may view the current valuation as detached from the fundamental cash burn reality.

Bear 9.00
β–Ό
Bull 20.00

πŸ•΅οΈ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-24 Sell 9.1K
2026-03-24 Sell 156.8K
2026-03-24 Sell 359.7K
2026-03-24 Sell 299K
2026-03-24 Sell 845.5K

πŸ”­ Quarterly Summary

SoundHound AI (SOUN) reported strong top-line momentum with revenue growth of 59.4% YoY and a significant sequential increase of 30.9% QoQ. The company maintains a gross margin of 47.9%, reflecting its position as a software-centric AI provider (AI-C). Management commentary focuses on the scaling of voice AI solutions across automotive and restaurant verticals, though the high FCF margin deficit of -61.0% remains a critical area of concern regarding the path to self-sustainability.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates