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SANM

Sanmina Corporation Y

M2: Product Cycle Avoid (46)
154.96
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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70.0%
66.7%
73.0%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🔴 Avoid
46.5 /100
🏗️ Structural 28.5 /40
Quality Score: 61.2 × 0.4
M2 Methodology: M2

Margin expansion on volume

W-SCALE Moat: W-SCALE

Economies of scale / Low cost

S-P8 Stack: S-P8

End product integrator

G-FOUNDER Governance: G-FOUNDER

Founder-led with high ownership

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

CAT-1 Earnings Execution Momentum

A track record of 4 consecutive earnings beats provides a technical floor and suggests management is effectively navigating the 52.1% sequential growth surge.

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-2 Insider-Analyst Divergence

While analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus, insider signals are bearish with net shares sold totaling 32,665 and a sell-to-buy value ratio exceeding 50:1.

T3 Tailwind: T3

Manufacturing sector expansion tailwind

RISK-1 Growth Deceleration Profile

Forward EPS growth is projected to drop sharply from 67.7% this year to 20.0% next year, suggesting a peak in the current cycle.

CAT-2 AI Infrastructure Squeeze

The AI-B positioning and 59.0% YoY revenue growth indicate Sanmina is a primary beneficiary of the AI hardware build-out, which may drive further upward revisions if demand persists.

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

Tactical 0.0 /30
S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM Critical Mineral Supply Chain Risk

As an S-P8 hardware manufacturer, Sanmina faces high severity exposure to undiversified supply chains for critical minerals (Gallium, Tungsten, Rare Earths) under MR-MULTIPOLAR risk.

V-ACCELERATING Growth Acceleration Rev +2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is accelerating.

Overview

Sanmina Corporation is a Tier 1 electronics manufacturing services (EMS) provider that focuses on complex hardware for the communications, medical, and defense sectors. The firm manages end-to-end manufacturing lifecycles, from printed circuit board fabrication to full system assembly and global logistics.

Market Cap 8.07B
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.6%
Gross Margin
CEO: Mr. Jure Sola
Sector: Technology • Electronic Components

Investment Thesis

🎯 Continued AI infrastructure demand exceeding the current 59.0% growth rate and driving further upward EPS revisions.

Although Sanmina is currently benefiting from a 59.0% year-over-year revenue surge driven by AI infrastructure demand, the investment thesis is clouded by a projected deceleration in EPS growth from 67.7% to 20.0% next year. This sharp slowdown, paired with a bearish insider sell-to-buy ratio exceeding 50:1, indicates that internal stakeholders may view the current valuation as a cyclical peak. While management has delivered four consecutive earnings beats, the company’s 7.6% gross margin leaves little room for error as supply chain risks for critical minerals like Gallium and Tungsten threaten to further compress profitability in a multipolar trade environment.

Bear 135.00
Bull 200.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-02-27 Sell 241K
2026-02-25 Sell 1.6M
2026-02-25 Sell 166.2K
2026-02-20 Sell 499.7K
2026-02-17 Sell 519.6K

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Sanmina Corp (SANM) delivered exceptional top-line performance with revenue growth of 59.0% YoY and a significant sequential increase of 52.1%. As an S-P8 hardware manufacturer positioned as an AI beneficiary (AI-B), the company is capitalizing on infrastructure cycles (C2, C1) and technology tailwinds (T6, T1, T3). Despite the revenue surge, gross margins remain lean at 7.6%, and FCF margin stands at 5.6%, highlighting the high-volume, low-margin nature of electronic manufacturing services.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates