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OKLO

Oklo Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (45)
59.74
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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-161.2%
-80.6%
โ–ผ
-241.8%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
45.3 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 17.3 /40
Quality Score: 33.3 ร— 0.4
W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

S-POWER-SECURE Strategic Infrastructure Position

The company's S-I1-SECURE classification reflects its role in providing sovereign-grade energy infrastructure, which is increasingly critical as AI power demand outstrips utility capacity.

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

W-IRREPRODUCIBLE Moat: W-IRREPRODUCIBLE

Physical scarcity, regulatory permission, or living data moat

S-I1-SECURE Stack: S-I1-SECURE

Nuclear/PPA contracts

G-FOUNDER Governance: G-FOUNDER

Founder-led with high ownership

H-DILUTION Serial Diluter

Shares outstanding increased by 16.6% YoY.

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
T9 Tailwind: T9

Beneficiary of 2025/26 policy shifts

CAT-1 F-POWER-PREMIUM Capture

With data centers facing a 10-20% power shortfall through 2028, Oklo is positioned to command up to 300% premiums for immediate, off-grid power delivery to AI hyperscalers, bypassing traditional grid constraints.

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C4 Cycle: C4

Supply/demand pricing power

T4 Tailwind: T4

Sovereign resilience & energy security

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-1 Smart Money Conflict and Insider Liquidation

A massive divergence exists between analyst optimism (+81.5% upside) and insider behavior. Insiders have sold 4,602,150 net shares totaling $366,127,133 in the last 6 months, signaling a lack of conviction in the current valuation.

RISK-2 Earnings Execution and Deceleration

The company has missed earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Furthermore, EPS growth is decelerating from -9.3% this year to a projected -17.9% next year, indicating widening losses during the scale-up phase.

โšก Tactical 10.0 /30
โœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM Critical Mineral Supply Chain Concentration

As a nuclear hardware provider, Oklo is exposed to MR-MULTIPOLAR risks regarding the supply of HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium). An undiversified supply chain for these critical minerals poses a structural risk to reactor deployment timelines.

V-ACCELERATING Growth Acceleration Rev +2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is accelerating.

Overview

Oklo Inc. is a nuclear technology firm developing fast fission reactors designed to provide decentralized, carbon-free energy. The company's Aurora powerhouse reactors utilize high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) to serve high-density energy consumers, specifically targeting the infrastructure needs of AI data centers.

Market Cap 8.72B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Jacob Dewitte
Sector: Utilities โ€ข Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ Capture of 300% pricing premiums for immediate, off-grid power delivery to AI hyperscalers.

Although insiders have liquidated $366,127,133 in stock over the past six months and EPS growth is expected to decelerate to -17.9% next year, Oklo provides a rare hedge against the physical constraints of the electrical grid. With data centers facing an estimated 10-20% power shortfall through 2028, the company's off-grid Aurora reactors are expected to command up to 300% premiums from AI hyperscalers desperate for immediate energy. While the company remains in a pre-revenue development phase with a history of missing earnings (75% of the last four quarters), its S-I1-SECURE status reflects the strategic importance of sovereign-grade energy infrastructure in an era of AI-driven power scarcity.

Bear 14.00
โ–ผ
Bull 168.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-04-03 Sell 834.7K
2026-04-03 Sell 652.2K
2026-04-03 Sell 521.4K
2026-04-03 Sell 461.8K
2026-04-03 Sell 1.4M

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

Oklo Inc. continues to focus on the commercialization of its Aurora fast fission reactors, targeting the growing power demand from AI data centers. While the company maintains a strong position in the S-I1-SECURE stack, recent financial performance shows significant execution hurdles with 3 earnings misses in the last 4 quarters. Management is prioritizing regulatory milestones and site preparation to address the projected 10-20% power shortfall in the data center market, though the company remains in a pre-revenue, high-spend development phase.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates