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LRCX

Lam Research Corporation Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (40)
267.06
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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31.0%
29.5%
β–Ό
43.3%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

πŸ”΄ Avoid
40.9 /100
πŸ—οΈ Structural 22.9 /40
Quality Score: 54.3 Γ— 0.4
W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

S-P6 Stack: S-P6

Semiconductor toolmaker monopoly

H-FORTRESS Fortress Balance Sheet

Net cash position with >10x interest coverage.

W-IP Moat: W-IP

Patent monopoly or trade secrets

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
RISK-2 Insider-Analyst Sentiment Conflict

Bearish insider signals (net -396,794 shares sold) conflict with the analyst consensus 'buy' rating and implied 4.2% upside, suggesting internal caution.

T3 Tailwind: T3

Manufacturing sector expansion tailwind

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

RISK-3 Sequential Growth Plateau

Revenue growth slowed to 0.4% QoQ despite 22.1% YoY growth, indicating that the current expansion cycle (C2) may be reaching a near-term peak.

RISK-1 EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst estimates indicate a sharp deceleration in EPS growth from +31.0% in the current quarter to +8.7% in the following quarter, signaling potential cyclical headwinds.

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

CAT-1 AI Infrastructure Expansion

LRCX's position as an AI-B beneficiary with T6 and T1 tailwinds provides a catalyst for long-term equipment demand in advanced logic and memory.

⚑ Tactical 0.0 /30
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM MR-MULTIPOLAR Supply Chain Risk

As a semiconductor equipment provider (S-P6), LRCX faces high severity risks from undiversified supply chains for critical minerals required in hardware fabrication.

Overview

Lam Research is a global supplier of innovative wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry. The company specializes in deposition and etch processes required for the production of advanced logic and high-density memory chips.

Market Cap 331.16B
P/E (TTM) β€”
Rev Growth 0.2%
Gross Margin β€”
CEO: Mr. Timothy M. Archer
Sector: Technology β€’ Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Investment Thesis

🎯 AI Infrastructure Expansion

While significant insider selling totaling $71.3M and a projected drop in quarterly EPS growth to 8.7% suggest a period of cyclical digestion, Lam Research remains a fundamental provider of the physical infrastructure necessary for advanced AI logic. The company's recent performance shows a sharp divergence between year-over-year expansion and immediate sequential momentum, reflecting a transition from rapid recovery to a potential plateau. Although the broader AI infrastructure catalyst provides a long-term floor for equipment demand, the plateauing revenue growth indicates that the current buying cycle for 3D NAND and logic equipment may be entering a cooling phase.

Bear 200.00
β–Ό
Bull 360.00

πŸ•΅οΈ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-05 Sell 11.2M
2026-03-05 Sell 334K
2026-03-03 Sell 9.3M
2026-02-09 Sell 3.8M
2026-02-09 Sell 4.1M

πŸ”­ Quarterly Summary

Lam Research (LRCX) demonstrated strong year-over-year performance with revenue growth of 22.1%, supported by a robust gross margin of 49.6% and a high free cash flow margin of 30.2%. However, sequential momentum has stalled, with revenue growth of only 0.4% quarter-over-quarter. Management commentary likely emphasizes the company's position as an AI beneficiary (AI-B) and its role in advanced technology transitions (T6, T1, T3), although the flat sequential growth suggests a period of digestion or cyclical transition (C1, C2) in the semiconductor equipment market.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates