⚠️ This site is under heavy development. Feel free to take a look around but don't use it for real decisions.

LII

Lennox International Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (20)
519.99
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
---
1Y Target
$ ---
---
3Y Target
$ ---
---
-5.5%
-20.2%
β–Ό
6.2%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

πŸ”΄ Avoid
20.8 /100
πŸ—οΈ Structural 10.8 /40
Quality Score: 19.1 Γ— 0.4
S-I2 Stack: S-I2

High-density rack cooling demand

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

🌊 Thematic 0.0 /30
Low Conviction (0.0 pts)
T4 Sovereign Resilience

Sovereign resilience & energy security

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

CAT-1 Fiscal Year Recovery Rebound

While near-term estimates are negative, the +1y EPS forecast projects a return to 9.9% growth, potentially driven by AI-related infrastructure demand (T1).

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

T7 Tailwind: T7

Outperforms as monetary policy loosens

RISK-1 Significant Revenue Deceleration

Revenue growth has turned sharply negative, falling 11.2% YoY and 16.2% QoQ, indicating a substantial slowdown in core segment demand.

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

RISK-2 Near-Term EPS Contraction

Forward EPS growth is decelerating vs historical trends, with a -5.5% growth estimate for the current quarter and -2.2% for the next, flagging margin or volume pressure.

RISK-3 Insider Sentiment Divergence

Insiders have been net sellers of 1,654 shares ($858,797 value) over the last 6 months, conflicting with the 7.8% implied upside from analyst price targets.

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

⚑ Tactical 10.0 /30
βœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)

Overview

Lennox International is a provider of climate control solutions for the heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVACR) markets. The company operates through three segments: Residential Heating & Cooling, Commercial Heating & Cooling, and Refrigeration.

Market Cap 17.59B
P/E (TTM) β€”
Rev Growth -0.1%
Gross Margin β€”
CEO: Mr. Alok Maskara
Sector: Industrials β€’ Building Products & Equipment

Investment Thesis

🎯 Projected 9.9% EPS growth recovery in the +1y forecast period driven by AI infrastructure demand

While Lennox is currently navigating a sharp 11.2% YoY revenue contraction, its underlying unit economics remain stable. The business is enduring a period of volume compression as evidenced by a 16.2% sequential decline in revenue, yet it has managed to defend its 34.7% gross margin. This stability suggests that the current downturn is a cyclical correction in core markets rather than a loss of competitive pricing power. Although near-term EPS is expected to contract by 5.5% in the current quarter, the investment case hinges on a transition toward AI-related infrastructure cooling, which is projected to drive a return to positive earnings growth in the following fiscal year.

Bear 450.00
β–Ό
Bull 645.00

πŸ•΅οΈ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-02-27 Sell 54K
2026-02-05 Sell 373.4K
2026-02-05 Sell 136.3K
2025-11-12 Sell 295.1K

πŸ”­ Quarterly Summary

Lennox International (LII) reported a significant revenue contraction, with revenue declining 11.2% YoY and 16.2% sequentially. Despite the top-line pressure, the company maintained a gross margin of 34.7% and a Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin of 12.3%. The company is classified as an AI-Beneficiary (AI-B) within the infrastructure stack (S-I2), suggesting long-term positioning for data center cooling, though current results reflect cyclical headwinds (C2, C5).

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates