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IESC

IES Holdings, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (51)
537.15
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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18.4%
18.4%
โ–ผ
18.4%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
51.8 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 17.8 /40
Quality Score: 36.5 ร— 0.4
M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

H-FORTRESS Fortress Balance Sheet

Net cash position with >10x interest coverage.

G-ALLOCATOR Governance: G-ALLOCATOR

M&A and buyback specialist

S-I3 Stack: S-I3

Sovereign supply chain hardening

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 24.0 /30
High Conviction (24.0 pts)
C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

T7 Tailwind: T7

Outperforms as monetary policy loosens

RISK-1 Significant Market Premium Overvaluation

The current market price of $536.93 is 17.2% above the analyst mean target of $458.00, implying a -14.7% downside and a V-OVERVALUED risk profile.

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

RISK-3 Growth and Margin Deceleration

Sequential revenue growth turned negative at -3.0%, and forward EPS growth is expected to decelerate from 16.9% to 15.3% year-over-year.

T4 Sovereign Resilience

Sovereign resilience & energy security

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

CAT-1 Earnings Execution Momentum

IESC maintains a strong track record of 3 earnings beats and 0 misses over the last three quarters, suggesting potential for further positive surprises.

RISK-2 Aggressive Insider Selling

Bearish insider sentiment is evidenced by the net sale of 243,320 shares and a total sell value of $109,274,747 over the last six months.

โšก Tactical 10.0 /30
โœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
S-SHOCK-DOWNSTREAM AI Infrastructure Demand Sensitivity

As an S-I3 provider, IESC is highly leveraged to downstream AI hyperscaler capital expenditure; any pullback in data center build-outs would disproportionately impact the order book.

Overview

IES Holdings is a diversified provider of electrical and technology infrastructure services, specializing in the design and installation of complex systems for data centers, industrial facilities, and residential markets. The company operates through a decentralized model, focusing on high-growth segments like electrification and digital connectivity.

Market Cap 10.62B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth 0.2%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Matthew J. Simmes
Sector: Industrials โ€ข Engineering & Construction

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ Continued acceleration of hyperscaler capital expenditures specifically targeting electrical grid hardening and proprietary data center cooling infrastructure.

While IESC has established itself as a critical provider for the physical layer of AI infrastructure, the stock currently faces significant valuation friction as its market price of $536.93 sits 17.2% above analyst mean targets. Although the company has maintained operational excellence with three consecutive earnings beats, a -3.0% sequential revenue contraction suggests that the breakneck pace of data center deployments may be hitting localized bottlenecks. Investors must weigh the secular tailwinds of electrification against aggressive insider divestment, which has seen $109.3 million in shares sold over the last six months as forward EPS growth is projected to decelerate from 16.9% to 15.3%.

Bear 458.00
โ–ผ
Bull 458.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-04 Sell 102.7K
2026-03-04 Sell 287.8K
2026-03-04 Sell 50.1K
2026-03-04 Sell 100.5K
2026-03-04 Sell 412.7K

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

IES Holdings (IESC) reported a robust 16.2% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by its position as an infrastructure provider (S-I3) benefiting from AI-related demand (AI-B). However, the company experienced a sequential revenue contraction of -3.0%, suggesting potential near-term friction in project timing or segment demand. Gross margins remain healthy at 25.3%, with a trailing twelve-month free cash flow margin of 5.0%. Management commentary reflects a focus on infrastructure cycles (C2, C5) and secular tailwinds in electrification and data center expansion (T6, T7, T10).

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates