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CRWV

CoreWeave, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (12)
101.96
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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10.2%
5.1%
โ–ผ
15.4%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
12.4 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 2.4 /40
Quality Score: 0.0 ร— 0.4
M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

H-RUNWAY Cash Crunch

Less than 4 quarters of cash runway (1.7 quarters).

W-IRREPRODUCIBLE Moat: W-IRREPRODUCIBLE

Physical scarcity, regulatory permission, or living data moat

H-DILUTION Serial Diluter

Shares outstanding increased by 8.3% YoY.

G-FOUNDER Governance: G-FOUNDER

Founder-led with high ownership

S-D1-G Stack: S-D1-G

GPU cloud build-out phase

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 0.0 /30
Low Conviction (0.0 pts)
RISK-2 Negative Free Cash Flow and Capital Intensity

A TTM FCF margin of -141.3% highlights the extreme cost of maintaining an S-D1-G position, posing risks to liquidity if external funding tightens.

RISK-3 Insider-Analyst Sentiment Divergence

While analysts maintain a 1.94 'buy' consensus, insiders have sold 5,817,935 net shares ($470.8M value), suggesting leadership is de-risking despite the 15.2% implied upside.

RISK-4 Execution Reliability Risk

The company has missed earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters, suggesting a pattern of over-promising or an inability to manage the costs of rapid scaling.

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

CAT-1 Hyper-Growth Revenue Capture

110.3% YoY revenue growth and 15.2% sequential growth confirm that the company is successfully capturing the T6 and T10 tailwinds in the AI sector.

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

RISK-1 Severe EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst estimates forecast EPS growth slowing from +10.2% in the current quarter to -84.6% in the next quarter, signaling a structural headwind rather than a temporary dip.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

โšก Tactical 10.0 /30
โœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-ACCELERATING Growth Acceleration Rev +2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is accelerating.

Overview

CoreWeave is a specialized cloud provider delivering high-performance GPU-accelerated compute resources for artificial intelligence, machine learning, and visual effects workloads. The company operates a distributed network of data centers designed to handle the massive parallel processing requirements of large language models and generative AI.

Market Cap 53.62B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth 1.1%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Michael N. Intrator
Sector: Technology โ€ข Software - Infrastructure

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ Sustained 110.3% YoY revenue growth driven by AI infrastructure demand

While CoreWeave is expanding its top-line footprint at a triple-digit pace, the company operates as a capital-intensive utility facing severe execution hurdles. Although revenue increased 110.3% year-over-year, the internal economics are strained by a free cash flow margin of -141.3%, indicating that every dollar of growth requires massive external financing. This financial strain is compounded by a pattern of missing earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters, suggesting that management has yet to master the operational complexities of its rapid scaling. Investors must also reconcile the optimistic analyst consensus with the reality of insiders offloading $470.8 million in shares, a move that signals a prioritized de-risking by those closest to the physical hardware assets.

Bear 38.00
โ–ผ
Bull 295.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-04-10 Sell 1M
2026-04-10 Sell 3.4M
2026-04-10 Sell 727K
2026-04-10 Sell 218.7K
2026-04-10 Sell 64.6K

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

CoreWeave (CRWV) demonstrated significant top-line expansion with 110.3% YoY revenue growth and 15.2% sequential QoQ growth, supported by its S-D1-G stack position and AI-B positioning. Despite a robust gross margin of 67.6%, the company is operating with extreme capital intensity, evidenced by a TTM FCF margin of -141.3%. Management commentary focuses on scaling infrastructure to meet AI demand, though the earnings track record shows 3 misses in the last 4 quarters, indicating execution volatility.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates