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CRUS

Cirrus Logic, Inc. Y

M2: Product Cycle Avoid (49)
159.92
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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4.4%
2.1%
โ–ผ
5.4%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
49.0 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 21.0 /40
Quality Score: 44.4 ร— 0.4
M2 Methodology: M2

Margin expansion on volume

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

W-BRAND Brand Power

Premium pricing power driven by brand equity.

H-CANNIBAL Share Cannibal

Shares outstanding decreased by 4.0% YoY.

W-IP Moat: W-IP

Patent monopoly or trade secrets

S-P3 Stack: S-P3

High scalability, low CapEx

H-FORTRESS Fortress Balance Sheet

Net cash position with >10x interest coverage.

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
RISK-1 Valuation Premium (V-OVERVALUED)

The current market price of $160.00 is 6.3% above the analyst consensus mean of $150.50, indicating that the stock may be overextended relative to fundamental expectations.

RISK-2 Structural EPS Deceleration

Forward EPS growth is projected to decelerate sharply from +20.2% this year to +0.3% next year, with a near-term contraction of -1.5% expected in the upcoming quarter.

RISK-3 Insider Sentiment Divergence

Bearish insider activity, marked by a net reduction of 53,282 shares and over $7.3M in sell value, conflicts with the consensus 'buy' rating from analysts.

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

CAT-1 Earnings Execution Momentum

A perfect track record of 4 earnings beats in the last 4 quarters suggests management consistently under-promises and over-delivers, which may mitigate deceleration fears.

C3 Cycle: C3

Replacement rate driven

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

โšก Tactical 10.0 /30
โœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM Critical Mineral Supply Chain Risk

As an S-P3 hardware provider, the company is exposed to MR-MULTIPOLAR risks involving undiversified supply chains for critical minerals essential to semiconductor manufacturing.

Overview

Cirrus Logic is a fabless semiconductor company specializing in low-power, high-precision mixed-signal processing solutions. The firm primarily develops audio and haptic hardware components for the smartphone, tablet, and wearable electronics markets.

Market Cap 8.16B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth 0.0%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. John M. Forsyth
Sector: Technology โ€ข Semiconductors

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ Consistent earnings execution momentum evidenced by four consecutive quarterly beats.

While Cirrus Logic is currently trading at a premium that exceeds analyst mean targets by 6.3%, its operational discipline provides a buffer against the projected stagnation in earnings. The company is entering a transition phase where forward EPS growth is expected to decelerate from 20.2% this year to a nearly flat 0.3% next year. Despite this structural deceleration and a net reduction of 53,282 shares by insiders, the firm's status as an S-P3 hardware provider allows it to capture value through physical intellectual property rather than facing the deflationary pressures common in AI-driven services. Investors must weigh the risk of undiversified supply chains for critical minerals against a management team that has maintained a perfect earnings beat record over the last four quarters.

Bear 120.00
โ–ผ
Bull 175.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-04-10 Sell 1.6M
2026-02-24 Sell 140K
2026-02-13 Sell 429.5K
2026-02-13 Sell 458.7K
2026-02-10 Sell 518.3K

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

Cirrus Logic (CRUS) delivered a quarter characterized by modest growth and strong profitability, reporting revenue growth of 4.5% YoY and 3.5% sequentially. The company maintains a high-tier gross margin of 53.1% and a robust TTM FCF margin of 30.8%, indicating efficient operations despite the S-P3 hardware classification. While management has successfully navigated the last four quarters with consistent earnings beats, the segment performance is facing a transition period as indicated by the narrowing growth rates in the forward estimates.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates