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AEVA

Aeva Technologies, Inc. Y IR

M2: Product Cycle Watch (67)
13.34
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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3.7%
1.8%
β–Ό
5.5%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🟑 Watch
67.6 /100
πŸ—οΈ Structural 39.6 /40
Quality Score: 99.0 Γ— 0.4
M2 Methodology: M2

Margin expansion on volume

H-RUNWAY Cash Crunch

Less than 4 quarters of cash runway (2.4 quarters).

H-DILUTION Serial Diluter

Shares outstanding increased by 13.7% YoY.

G-FOUNDER Governance: G-FOUNDER

Founder-led with high ownership

W-IP Moat: W-IP

Patent monopoly or trade secrets

S-P3 Stack: S-P3

High scalability, low CapEx

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
C6 Cycle: C6

Credit-dependent demand

RISK-2 Smart Money Conflict

A sharp divergence exists between analyst targets (+80.4% upside) and insider behavior, with net sales of 1,684,002 shares ($23.3M value) signaling internal bearishness.

T11 Tailwind: T11

Humanoid robotics and physical AI agents

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

RISK-3 Operating Leverage Failure

Despite 108.5% revenue growth, EPS growth is nearly flat at +0.3% for the current year, indicating high fixed costs or margin compression.

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

CAT-1 Revenue Scaling Acceleration

Sequential growth of 57.1% suggests rapid adoption of 4D LiDAR technology which may lead to valuation re-rating if sustained.

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

RISK-1 Extreme Free Cash Flow Burn

FCF margin of -662.0% indicates a massive disconnect between revenue and operating costs, posing a structural risk to liquidity.

⚑ Tactical 10.0 /30
βœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM Critical Mineral Supply Chain Risk

As an S-P3 hardware provider, AEVA is exposed to high-severity MR-MULTIPOLAR risks regarding the sourcing of rare minerals for LiDAR production.

V-ACCELERATING Growth Acceleration Rev +2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is accelerating.

Overview

Aeva Technologies specializes in the design and production of 4D LiDAR sensors utilizing frequency-modulated continuous wave (FMCW) technology. The company integrates its sensing capabilities onto a single silicon photonics chip to provide instantaneous velocity and depth data for autonomous vehicles and industrial automation.

Market Cap 0.84B
P/E (TTM) β€”
Rev Growth 1.1%
Gross Margin β€”
CEO: Mr. Soroush Salehian Dardashti
Sector: Technology β€’ Software - Infrastructure

Investment Thesis

🎯 Sustained 57.1% sequential revenue growth leading to a valuation re-rating

While Aeva is successfully scaling its 4D LiDAR shipments, the underlying business is currently burning through capital at an unsustainable rate, reflected in a -662.0% free cash flow margin. Although the 108.5% YoY revenue growth demonstrates market appetite for its FMCW technology, the lack of bottom-line improvement with EPS growth at only 0.3% signals significant structural hurdles. Investors must weigh the optimistic 80.4% analyst price targets against the $23.3 million in recent insider sales, which suggests those with the most visibility into the company’s operations are exiting positions despite the 57.1% sequential revenue growth.

Bear 18.50
β–Ό
Bull 33.00

πŸ•΅οΈ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-05 Sell 447.1K
2026-01-13 Sell 388.5K
2026-01-13 Sell 1.2M
2026-01-13 Sell 1.2M
2026-01-05 Sell 1.4M

πŸ”­ Quarterly Summary

Aeva Technologies (AEVA) demonstrated significant top-line momentum with 108.5% YoY revenue growth and 57.1% sequential QoQ growth. Despite this scaling, the company maintains a gross margin of 23.5% and continues to face extreme cash flow challenges, evidenced by a negative FCF margin of -662.0%. Management commentary focuses on the transition from development to commercial production of 4D LiDAR sensors, though the financial profile remains heavily reliant on external capital to fund operations.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates